Opinion | Cities and climate change: building resilience against water-related risks
“Cities can be at the forefront of climate adaptation”, assert Jacopo Furlanetto and Jaroslav Mysiak, researchers from the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (Venice, Italy), in an exclusive article for PLATFORMA on rethinking risk-assesment and “reducing water mismanagement”. Both delivered keynote speeches during CEMR, PLATFORMA and UCLG online training academy that took place on 10 and 11 March.
As the quote from Carl Sagan[1] reminds us, “for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand”. Our planet is undergoing significant changes, primarily driven by the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations like CO2, that is leading to a rise in the planet’s average surface air temperature. The year 2024 reached an average +0.72°C surface air temperature increase compared to the 1991-2020 period and some regions, like Europe, are warming faster than the global average (+1.47°C).
A warming climate has profound effects, particularly on water, and the risk of more frequent and intense extreme weather and climate events is increasing. Water is intrinsically linked to most climate related hazards, manifesting as either too much water (e.g., storms, flooding) or too little (e.g., drought, biodiversity loss). Currently, approximately half the world’s population already faces severe limitations in accessing (clean)water, and climate change is expected to further exacerbates this: rising temperatures can contribute to both water scarcity and increased risks of intense precipitation and flooding.
“Adaptation measures can be implemented”
Cities are particularly vulnerable to such events, with their high population density, water demand and impervious surfaces. However, there is hope. Adaptation measures can be implemented, and adjusting to the current and future effects of climate change is key. Cities can be at the forefront of climate adaptation. Flood risks can be reduced by improving urban drainage systems and increasing permeable surfaces to reduce flood impacts.
Furtherly, improving the water supply infrastructure, reducing water mismanagement and finding alternative water sources are key actions to face the increasing drought risk. These adaptation measures can work in synergy, where one action can address multiple risks. For instance, green corridors can help reduce both urban heat and flooding, increase water infiltration and decreasing water flow. Ultimately, the future and our ability to manage these water-related risks depend on the choices and possibilities we embrace in the present.
Enhancing preparedness, resilience, and adaptation
Understanding the patterns of climate-related risks—including their intensity, tail probabilities, timing, and geographic distribution—is important for enhancing preparedness, resilience, and adaptation. This knowledge is essential for adjusting safety and security standards to safeguard livelihoods, infrastructure, and communities in the face of evolving climate threats.
In recent years, our understanding of climate risk assessment has evolved. The IPCC defines climate risk as the result of three interacting factors: hazards (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise), exposure (the presence of people, infrastructure, or ecosystems in harm’s way), and vulnerability (susceptibility to damage due to social, economic, or structural factors). More recently, this framework has been expanded to include risks arising from inadequate or poorly designed adaptation responses, known as policy response risks.
Recent works emphasise how the above risk drivers compound risks, giving rise to cascading and systemic effects. The first European Climate Risk Assessment[2] explored systemic risks through storylines, illustrating how different risk drivers interact and how the resulting risks can propagate across thematic and geographic domains. As climate risks become more complex and interconnected, the way we assess them must evolve. Traditional approaches often focus on immediate impacts, but a forward-looking, resilience-oriented perspective is needed to navigate the challenges ahead. This places new expectations on climate risk assessments.
First, the practice of climate and disaster risk assessments needs to stimulate an understanding of systemic risks. Climate hazards do not exist in isolation—extreme heat, floods, or droughts can trigger cascading effects that disrupt supply chains, infrastructure, and social systems. Assessments should uncover how risks propagate through interconnected systems to better inform strategies that enhance resilience, ensuring that communities, economies, and ecosystems can absorb shocks, adapt, and recover.
Second, risk assessments must move from identifying vulnerabilities to enabling solutions. Risk assessments should be a tool for action, identifying practical, scalable solutions that strengthen adaptation efforts but also identifies their limits. Nature-based solutions like wetland and forest restoration can strengthen natural defences, while financial innovations such as insurance for ecosystem services can secure investments in resilience-building. Assessments should define when and where these solutions are most effective, how they perform over time, and at what level of warming they remain viable options.
Third, risk assessments must bridge capacity gaps for smarter adaptation. Open data spaces, tailored climate services, and communities of practice can improve access to information, foster innovation, and enable collaboration. Transparent, accessible risk data ensures that adaptation strategies are scientifically sound, locally relevant, and globally informed.
As the climate crisis worsen, rethinking how we assess risks is more important than ever. By understanding systemic risks, advancing actionable solutions, and strengthening adaptive capacities, climate risk assessments shift from being purely technical exercises to becoming powerful tools for resilience and climate-ready decision-making.
[1] Carl Sagan was an American astronomer, astrophysicist, cosmologist, science communicator, and author. He was best known for his work in popularizing science, particularly through the television series Cosmos: A Personal Voyage and his book Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space. The quote comes from the latter where Sagan reflects on the significance of Earth as seen from space in a photograph taken by the Voyager 1 spacecraft from 6 billion kilometers away.
[2] EEA Report 01/2024 – European Climate Risk Assessment, https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/european-climate-risk-assessment
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(Picture by Jonathan Ford on Unsplash)
